Analysis: Video of missile-attack on Hercules

As speculation over the downing of a British Hercules transport air plane grows, the video itself is a testament to the effectiveness of the insurgency groups.

They launched the video right after the attack, which shows both that a video production unit is in place (no big deal on a laptop, however it might not be a common commodity in Iraq as of today) and that there is a clear understanding that this kind of attack has most effect when it can be documented. For if a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it, does it make a sound?

The video involves footage that is deemed very likely to show remains of a C-130 Hercules, which means that they might have had a man with a video camera handy. However, if the plane was really flying in 15.000 feet (which it might not if it should have been shot down with a MANPAD) it would crash in a considerable distance from the firing-site.

The footage of the missile in the video however is very likely to show some other kind of system. That means that the producers of the video have some kind of stock photography - unless of course they have found it on the internet, which again would prove it false.

That a considerable amount of effort has been put into execution, production and distribution of the video overshadows the actual attack from my point of view (all respect to the dead). Because even if the plane fell down because of tired pilots or because of the 40 years on its tail, the insurgent group still scores points on releasing the video. It shows their capacity to stage scenery not naturally found on the battlefield - and they thereby begin to play a game very like in nature to western media control - read my post on hyper-reality here.

And how are you going to fight fiction?

Watch BBC's clips from the video here.