Nurturing snakes in your bosom

John Robb and his Global Guerrillas brings an interesting and gloomy prediction.

By nurturing paramilitary groups to quell the insugency (what he very fitting calls the Latin-American solution) the US has had a short term strategic benefit. But they haven't used that advantage to pull out and leave the mess to the Iraqis themselves. Now the "window of chaos" has shut and the US is stuck in the room with Shiite para-militaries and Sunni insurgents. He foresees thus:

Here's a likely scenario for how this will play out: deeper entrenchment within US bases (to limit casualties) and pledges of neutrality (Rumsfeld) will prove hollow. Ongoing ethnic slaughter will force US intervention to curtail the militias. Inevitably, this will increase tensions with the militias and quickly spin out of control. Military and police units sent to confront the militias will melt down (again), due to conflicting loyalties. Several large battles with militias will drive up US casualties sharply. Supply lines to US bases from Kuwait will be cut. Protesters will march on US bases to demand a withdrawal. Oil production via the south will be cut (again), bringing Iraqi oil exports to a halt. Meanwhile, the government will continue its ineffectual debate within the green zone, as irrelevant to the reality on the ground in the country as ever. Unable to function in the mounting chaos and facing a collapse in public support for the war, the US military will be forced to withdraw in haste. It will be ugly.